Thursday, January 17, 2008

Nevada Caucus Teacher's Union Lawsuit

You know, regardless of the outcome of today's court hearing, it will be Advantage Obama if you accept the premise that in popular public perception the Clinton team is somehow behind the lawsuit by the Teacher's Union.

If the Court decides against the Teacher's Union, then Obama will benefit in Nevada from having the Caucus sites along the strip.   The Culinary Workers' Union will be able to maximize the votes it can deliver to Obama.

If the Court decides in favor of the Teacher's Union, it will form a stunning example of the power of the establishment-backed Clinton to change previously agreed upon rules when the rules don't suit their purposes.  Remember, the decision to allow at-large caucuses was proposed in March 2007 by the state party and approved by the Democratic National Committee in August 2007 - Obama was nowhere close to Clinton in polling back then.  And tellingly no one opposed the ruling until the Culinary Workers decided to back Obama.  Bill Clinton can fake all the outrage he wants to fake but he knows he is in a bind.  Obama will go to town with strong evidence that backs his claim to being the "anti-establishment" change candidate.  In a way, I think I might prefer the Court ruling in favor of the Teacher's Union.  The benefit in the other states will be huge for Obama.

Just to throw in something to make you think - if the Teacher's Union loses, would Obama still be able to claim that he stood up to the establishment and prevailed?

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